March 2016

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Watching Trump take on the establishment and winning has been truly incredible to watch unfold.  It’s easy to watch him give what seems unplanned remarks that came out of the blue.  Heck this is how he lulls everyone to sleep.  The reality, I think he has an incredibly calculated strategy.  Let’s piece this election together.

As I see this race there are actually 3 lanes.

  • I think Cruz shares more in common with Trump voters than Marco’s voters.  Trump is like a non-evangelical version of Ted.
  • Trump equals 3/7th  of all fed up voters that want change, let’s call them independent minded.
  • Cruz basically grabbed all of the Carson evangelical / liberty / constitutionalist votes and now he is sitting 2/7th of the vote.
  • Rubio would basically be tied with Cruz if Kasich dropped out, giving him an establishment vote of a small 2/7th of the rest.

trumppolls

How this election plays out.

Trump is attacking Marco to drop now, this is an incredible calculation.  There is always a big group of momentum voters that jump on the winning band wagon.  Trump understands this and that Marco is the only person with a shot at beating the Don in Florida.

Marco is still the stronger of the two candidates (him and Cruz) against Trump.  The front half with the SEC states voting were Cruz’s strongest states.  After Ohio and Florida the tables turn to a Marco favored match up with less of an evangelical voter base.  Trump needs to decimate Marco in Florida first.

With Florida out of the way, watch Trump the map will look much more clear.  It will either be a run the clock out strategy, or he goes after Cruz to grab market share.  I don’t think Marco voters would vote for Trump except given the alternative being Hillary.  So Marco will have a floor of 25%.

The real battle for market share will be with the Cruz Trump voters.  My prediction is that Trump will continue winning by the exact same amount the whole way to the end.  There will be no real candidate consolidation.

Trump will win the Republican nomination.